Born Under Cycle 19: Solar Activity, HF Radio, and the Road to Minimum
I’m not into astrology though I’ve often thought if you’re willing to believe your own destiny was fated on the position of constellations in the night skies when you were born, you would be better served believing in the influences of whatever Solar Cycle you were born under. Solar cycles are approximately 11-year periods during which the Sun’s magnetic activity fluctuates, affecting the number of sunspots, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections and these have been tracked and recorded since about 1755 covering virtually everyone alive today.
For instance, I was born during Cycle 19, a powerful phase, clearly a better indicator of my life and future than simply having been born under Aquarius.
Amateur radio enthusiasts understand solar activity impacts radio propagation, especially at high frequencies, so radio hams obsessively follow the progression of each cycle. At roughly the middle point of each cycle there is a recorded maximum of activity and on either side of this peak activity on the sun is either rising toward the next peak, or declining toward solar minimum. At the moment, we are roughly seven years into Cycle 25 with the peak believed to have occurred in October 2024. Cycles sometimes have a second peak, though these are usually less powerful and in the case of this cycle, most forecasters think it unlikely.
So for the HF enthusiast, we are now on the long road to solar minimum, a much less magical place where there is sadness and gnashing of teeth.
But take heart, life on the downslope isn’t all bad.
Sure, 10, 12, and 15 meters will feel the drop in activity first and most severely, and eventually 17 meters will follow suit. Being a stalwart and the Queen of all amateur bands, 20 meters will continue to deliver the goods if history is any indicator. On the plus side, there should be less solar noise, fewer solar storms, quieter bands, and enhanced grey-line propagation. The “bottom” becomes the best time to work on your 160, 80, and 40 meter DX totals, assuming you have room for those larger antennas.
As solar cycles go, 25 wasn’t nearly as powerful as many other recorded solar cycles, but it was better for HF radio than 24, making it notable for DX chasers especially since it turned out being much more robust than the early predictions. As they say, “timing is everything” and many radio hams will warmly recall this cycle thanks to the DX worked and having arrived on the heels of FT8’s emergence, a mode that does a great job of digging thru the noise to unearth even the weakest of signals. Let’s raise a mug to Cycle 25!