More than twenty years ago I listened to a radio interview with an author who was considered something of an expert on urban development. And at the time he was pushing the theory of ‘Peak Oil’ — a theoretical moment in time when humans will extract as much oil from the planet over a 24 hour period. After that point, though the earth may still hold an immense treasure of petroleum, whatever it yields after that point will be less. The moment peak has been reached begins a long decline in growth on a global scale.

The theory is sound and I believe correct. The problem is determining when that will take place. New methods for extraction of oil (fracking, etc.) have clouded his original timeline. The old stock market adage is relevant here: give them details and give them dates, just never give them both at the same time.

While his timing proved inaccurate, I continue to believe oil to be an ongoing problem if not for reasons of eventual shortages then for reasons of geopolitics. Close the Strait of Hormuz for a few days and suddenly Americans are paying five and six dollars a gallon for gasoline. I have no confidence the price of oil will fall precipitously when the current Middle East conflict has concluded.

Part of this guy’s ‘Peak Oil’ treatise I found most interesting, and took to heart, was his insistence the future wouldn’t be about easy motoring. Commuting a hundred miles a day for employment wouldn’t be sustainable. Neither would making multiple cross town trips per day shuttling the little ones off to soccer practice and ballet lessons. In his view “place” would become one of the most important things and he advised moving to wherever you want to be as quickly as possible. And learning to love spending more time at “home” by way of adding a home theatre, gym, and any other space that will allow you to be happy being home because the option to hop in the car and run over to the nearest Metropolis for entertainment would likewise become unsustainable.

For me that includes the ham shack and I have fashioned it into one of my favorite places to be (another reason I’ve never wasted a single moment trying to gain remote access to my gear). I could easily stay home for weeks at a time if I wanted and not grow bored. In fact, some rainy evenings I carry a cup of coffee into my shack, light my pipe, then pound brass on one of many Morse keys as I imagine being a radio telegrapher on a tramp steamer in the South Pacific!

Other times I carry one of my small battery-powered CW transceivers into the backyard where I can spend hours, if the bugs aren’t biting, working the world from my patio. I understand why so many people have embraced POTA but propagation is no more advanced whether I sit in a State Park or on my back patio.

And I don’t need to burn gasoline to stay home.

I only point this out because there are some preparing to retire with plans to buy a $250k motorhome that gets six miles per gallon and they intend to visit and do POTA activations from parks in every state. Not to be a nattering nabob of negativity, but alternate plans for remaining radio active in retirement might have to be discovered, that’s all I’m saying.

Part of the problem is that oil is a primary driver of the economy. It directly impacts the costs of manufactured goods, transportation, and even food production since it’s used to make fertilizer. Watching the grocery and utility bills grow so rapidly with no end in sight is cause for concern and with that in mind, I’m pleased to have the backyard and my ham shack as a refuge in times like these.