Apple fans can finally unclench. A little. The persistent rumors about Steve Jobs on his deathbed were not accurate. He’s sick, but not dying — well, at least not dying any more than the rest of us.

He puts the rumors to rest with this personal letter.

I suppose all good things must end — in this case, it’s my six weeks long, end of the year vacation. I’ve been off work since November 21st but tomorrow, I’ll put my nose back to the grindstone. Before I do that, I’ve got a long drive ahead of me today — about 800 miles to be precise. The iPod and the Kindle are stuffed like the suitcase and now it’s ‘on the road again’ time for me.

Comments may be stuck in moderation until I hit the hotel tonight.

73 de Jeff

I was doing my regular thing this morning, drinking coffee and reading the news online. I like to use Google News Search to look for items items with the phrase “ham radio” in them. That kind of shotgun search generally yields a lot of obituaries with the tag, “he was a ham radio operator” in them, but occasionally something more interesting bubbles up.

Sifting through them this morning one headline caught my attention:

UFO Traffic and Australia’s Bermuda Triangle

Now come on, don’t tell me you would pass up on the chance to learn more about amateur radio’s connection to UFO traffic — and heck, who among us even knew that Australia had a Bermuda Triangle?

I had to wade most of the way through the article before seeing what the Google search bot had picked up with regards to my query:

“Richard Hoagland, ex-NASA employee and space archaeologist media personality, released some spectacular NASA video footage that was shot from an American space shuttle mission in September 1991and accidently picked up by a ham radio operator. Subsequent to this intercept and its public distribution by the radio ham, NASA initially encrypted and then totally ceased further shuttle video transmissions. The video shows a bright UFO travelling near earth’s atmosphere and then two energy beams shooting from earth towards the craft making it turn 180 degrees and travel away from earth at incredible speed, one beam has been confirmed to have come from Exmouth.”

I have absolutely no idea if there is even one ounce of truth in this statement, or the entire article for that matter, but the inclusion of the reference to a radio ham picking up what was probably meant to be a private signal is interesting to note. It’s a further sign that John Q. Public really has very little idea what radio hams are doing in our garages, attics and basements. It’s obviously something “technical” and for all anyone really knows, we could be building a time machine or a death ray gun.

As I have written many times before, radio amateurs have some gravitas in the community and our inclusion in any news report adds validity — even in an absurdly concocted story. You’ll notice that the article doesn’t identify the radio amateur who supposedly intercepted these NASA videos. The article simply states the video feed from the space shuttle was “picked up” by some unknown ham radio operator.

My noting this shouldn’t be taken as some deep social commentary, heck, I enjoy a good conspiracy theory as much as anyone else. Dinner conversation about who really killed President Kennedy is much more interesting when it revolves around a “conspiracy” as opposed to admitting that the deed was done by a singular lunatic who was able to easily bypass presidential security — which is sure to kill the conversation as effectively as the assassin.

I simply find it interesting that facts can be so easily obscured and bolstered at the same time by including “ham radio” in any conspiracy theory.

And this is nothing new — in the exact same manner as this UFO article, news reports for a century have included similar unsubstantiated references.

News stories abounded after the sinking of the Titanic about messages received by “radio hams” that included all manner of curious details. And there were numerous reports of radio hams picking up messages from Ameila Earhart following her loss at sea; I’ve also read news clips claiming that radio hams intercepted Japanese radio messages prior to the bombing of Pearl Harbor, messages that could have averted the disaster.

History is replete with such accounts — some may be true, or contain at least an element of truth, but most are pure fabrication.

Want to spice up your next dinner party?

Tell your guests that a friend of yours, a radio ham, was tuning the bands one day when he intercepted recent radio traffic from Jimmy Hoffa who was being kept in a secret government facility but had managed to piece together a transmitter — that ought to keep things lively at your party.

The secret of a good conspiracy theory is that you don’t get enough specific data to refute the claim — the facts must remain nebulous and unchallengeable. So be sure to include the part about the radio ham, but for goodness sakes, don’t give them a call sign with which they could follow it up!

This is a short report of a sad, senseless crime that ends in murder:

“A 93-year-old man was found dead Thursday morning after an apparent home invasion.”

But reading past the headline of this sad crime, your imagination should begin to paint a picture of a man who lived a long, wonderful and full life. His was the kind of life that should inspire us all and serve as the example we should want to follow.

How can I say such a thing having never even met the man?

Sheriff Grady Judd said all that I need to know:

“This was a good solid man in the community. Even though he was 93 he was still active in the Kathleen Historical Society," Judd said. "He was a ham radio operator, he knew Morse code and he was one the community could always depend on to help out in any event.”

If you’re looking for a New Year’s resolution to add to your list, try living the kind of life that would cause someone to say something as simply eloquent about you as was said about Walter Farley, K4QE.

For the last five or six years, this (the last day of the year) has been the day that I serve up predictions for the coming New Year. Sometimes my prodigious prognostication has been so accurate as to be scary - while at other times my crystal ball has been completely fogged up.

In other words, my predictive accuracy of the future is only slightly better than a coin toss.

But it won’t take the powers of Nostradamus to predict that in 2009 things are going to be black and blue and bailed out all over. After all, we’re mired in the kind of deep recession that brings back memories of Herbert Hoover, the WPA, and long soup lines. The credit crisis followed by the banking bailout, followed by the auto industry bailout will meld into the bailout of everything under the sun in 2009.

Welcome to Bailoutistan, formerly known as the United States.

Here’s my New Year’s toast to you with heartfelt wishes that we all survive the road ahead…

1. The Year of Less – 2009 will be the year when we consume less of everything. There will be less money spent on vacations, trips to Starbucks, dining out, trips to the movies, home theatres, HDTV and a lot less automobiles and houses sold. All of the things that we’ve enjoyed in abundance will be coveted in moderation in the New Year. Four-dollar cafe lattes are out; one-dollar McDonalds coffee is in. Health clubs are out; taking walks outside is in. Buffet styled restaurants with long “all you can eat” food troughs is out; soup and sandwich shops are in. Get the idea?
2. Growth of the Police State – over the last twelve months, there have been a number of disturbing indications that at many levels of government, plans and preparations are being made (under the ruse of “Homeland Security” of course) to dramatically expand the powers of the police state. I’m aware that this is mostly the fodder of conspiracy theorists, but there have been several confirmed reports about the government preparing for something big – like maybe widespread riots because of food or energy shortages or to quarantine large numbers of people following an outbreak of some rapidly spreading disease. Or perhaps this is simply the paranoia that comes from living under a regime that suspends habeas corpus, spies on its own citizens, and maintains secret internment camps all in the name of “protecting” us?
3. Social Media (and Web 2.0) Goes on Life Support – in light of the current facts, this must sound like a crock but hear me out. Services like Twitter and the small army that has grown up around it are amazing to watch and to play with, but almost none of them have an actual business model. Up until now the idea has been to fund a small start-up with venture capital and then give its services away for free until it gathers a huge base (millions) of users and then begin figuring out how to monetize it. The problem of course is that we’ve all become accustomed to everything online being free. Sure, Twitter can sell adverts but the signs already are pointing toward an enormous collapse in online marketing for the coming year. Services that are depending on this questionable business model are going to find themselves in the soup line in 2009.
4. The love affair with the cell phone ends – I would be flabbergasted if consumers continue locking themselves into high-cost, long-term contracts with wireless companies during such a severe economic downturn. And I’d be even more amazed if those same companies don’t begin tweaking up their prices in an attempt to shore up their bottom line in a very tough year. That combination will either have folks dropping their service altogether; or paring back on the most profitable features (like 3G network, texting, etc.). The iPhone and the Android suddenly become a lot less attractive (at any price) without all the cool (and expensive) networking features. Don’t get me wrong, cell phones are here to stay, but their run on explosive and unchecked growth will end in 2009.
5. Double-Digit Unemployment – the US unemployment rate will hit 15% in 2009, a rate unseen since the Great Depression. This collapse in employment will come very quickly in the New Year as businesses react swiftly in an attempt to conserve capital and survive the storm. Many who seemed to think that the United Auto Workers were just getting what they deserved when they were laid off will be standing in the unemployment line shoulder-to-shoulder with them in 2009.
6. The Grand Old Party is toast – it isn’t just the loss of a single Presidential election that has doomed the Republican Party. The GOP is in complete disarray and running for cover. There is no clear leader, platform, or agenda. And worse for them, the party is shrinking at an incredible rate. If you don’t count the small pockets of Rednecks in the deep south and in the rapidly contracting bible-belt regions, Republicans are about as scarce as Bigfoot. Sarah Palin mocked the big cities as not being the “real” America – apparently oblivious to the fact that that’s where most of the voters live. Here’s a quick lesson for the lady from Wasilla – numbers are pretty gosh-darned important in a democracy. You piss off everyone who lives in the big cities with your divisive talk and you lose elections. Here’s another free tip for the party that wrecked America – when you make uneducated, bigoted, blowhard college dropouts like Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity the defacto mouthpiece for your entire party – you deserve to be toast.
7. Energy – the price of oil will continue its wild gyrations causing all manner of grief throughout the year. While the recent tanking of the price may be good news for consumers, it will be short-lived. Demand has fallen off a cliff due to the global recession but oil producing nations will act quickly to shore up prices. We may not see $5 a gallon gas in the US this year, but rest assured, with supplier determination and the eternal threat of conflict in the Middle East, the price of oil will not remain low. We need to be running at warp speed towards renewable, non-fossil energy solutions but I don’t see much ground being gained in this struggle during the depths of a Depression.
8. Amateur Radio in a New Age – The ARRL will get a bump in membership numbers in 2009, the result of the market losing another publication (Worldradio) and a general circling of the wagons as the hobby continues to contract. Threats to our spectrum from new technologies (possibly digital radio broadcasting) will only add to the growing angst of enthusiasts who can look around and see that nearly everyone with a ham ticket is now eligible for social security. Hamfests will bear most of the brunt of the economic collapse – look for many cancellations in the New Year.

Note: I’ve been predicting the withdrawal of one of the big ham radio manufacturers from the hobby every year since I’ve been doing this and I’ve always been wrong.

Elecraft, Flex-Radio, and MFJ seem well positioned to survive but TenTec remains the elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about. Nearly everyone loves TenTec and its loss would be a crushing blow to the hobby. But having determined to go the route of high-end gear, they now must compete head-to-head with the “big boys” across the Pacific. It’s probably too late in the downturn to begin engineering a smaller, more affordable radio (unless there is already one in the pipeline) so they will just have to ride this storm out on the backs of their loyal customer base. Or not.

Finally, this year could well be the ‘year’ of the emergency communicator as hero. When all else fails is not just a slogan and I can imagine a lot of things failing this year. As Federal, State and Local tax revenues fall, public services will suffer. Communication equipment that needs to be replaced won’t be; training for communications officers will be put off; drills and exercises will be postponed; the continuing exuberant reliance on cell phone systems – these all virtually guarantee plenty of volunteer work for radio amateurs in the coming year.

With the New Year quickly approaching, I wanted to capture a few random thoughts about some things I’ve learned, or have come to accept about the world, the nation, life, and myself during these last twelve months.

1. You only get one body and it requires regular maintenance.
   I’ve had a few minor health issues this year that are going to require additional attention in the New Year. I’ll turn 50 in a few months and I suppose this is a fairly typical rite of passage but like so many people, I’ve taken a perfectly healthy body and through lack of attention, have allowed it to go too long without proper maintenance. Next year will be more about diet and exercise and looking for fun outside, and much less about staring at an LCD screen while seated at a desk sipping hot chocolate. The benefits of health should be obvious but in addition to those, given the current state of the healthcare system in the US, none of us can really afford to be sick for even a moment.  
2. Life is short, do what you enjoy right now because there may not be a “later”.
   Most of us will probably not depart this life as poetically as did Randy Pausch. On September 18, 2007, the Carnegie Mellon professor and alumnus delivered a one-of-a-kind last lecture that made the world stop and pay attention. If you have somehow managed to live this long without having watched it, consider yourself fortunate that you can still take it in. Randy died July 25, 2008, at the age of 47. 
3. America is nowhere near as rich or as powerful as we would like to believe.
   It isn’t easy to be “number one” at anything forever. Just ask the New England Patriots. Sadly, there is now an entire generation of Americans who believe that being the most powerful and prosperous nation on earth is a birthright and not something that requires ceaseless effort to maintain. We cannot forever ride the coattails of having been on the side of victory in a World War fought seven decades earlier. No empire is eternal and I think we would do well as a people to come to grips with that fact and sober up from the imaginary power trip we’ve been on for too long. False bravado has caused us to act like we’re cruising around town in a sexy red Porsche when in fact, we are driving an old rusty Chevette with an empty gas tank — and the rest of the world has made a note of it.
4. I don’t care about the Palestinian problem.
   I was born in 1959 so during the course of my entire lifetime the world news has been dominated by the never ending insanity over Palestine. It used to be that newsreel footage of a Palestinian mother holding a dead baby while weeping into the camera would move me. But that card has been played too many times to still have any effect. I’ve come to believe that given many options, there are legions of people in the Middle East who prefer the role of barbarian, as though it were embedded in their DNA. It’s heartless and not at all politically correct to write this but here it is: I don’t care one whit about these lunatics and their insane belief in a Bronze Age desert god who harbors an eternal death wish for the entire planet.
5. Credit is always bad and those who dabble in it will burn in Hell.  
   Okay, perhaps that’s a little extreme. But my parents grew up in the Depression and so when I was growing up, they constantly beat into my head that credit cards were a trap that would lead a man into financial slavery. My Dad has only had one credit card in his entire life – and he got that about thirty years ago after his brother died in California and he couldn’t rent a car at the airport without one. He didn’t use it for ten years when the company called and told him they were going to tack on an annual fee. At that, he canceled the card. So don’t try tell me that in this day and age a person “can’t get along without a credit card”. If all of us had followed the example of the Greatest Generation there would have been no banking crisis that our great-grandchildren will bitterly curse us for.
6. It may be possible to live too long.
   My Dad will turn 82 years old if he lives until May. He was born in 1927 – the year Charles Lindbergh became the first person to fly solo across the Atlantic. Imagine all he has lived to see in his lifetime. His health is excellent and I have no reason to believe that he will “check out” anytime soon. But my Mom died four years ago and since then, Dad hasn’t been happy. When she died they had been married 54 years. Naturally, holidays are the most depressing time for him and so this last month has been rough. When I think that his spouse of fifty-plus years, every one of his friends, his parents and all but one of his siblings have already “gone on”, then I understand his sadness and often wonder if living too long might be a curse.

Feel free to set me straight in the comments.